A Mathematical Modeling of Terrorism Dynamics and Control Strategies in Nigeria

Abstract

A new Terrorism model was proposed having seven compartments: susceptible S(t), moderate M(t), terrorist T(t), combat Mathematical Modeling of Terrorism Dynamics and Control Strategies in Nigeria ant C(t), repentant R(t), rehabilitated RH(t), and detention D(t). The existence and positivity of the Terrorism model solution were proved, and local stability of the terrorism-free equilibrium as well as the endemic equilibrium of the terrorism model was established. Furthermore, the deterministic basic reproduction number (R0) was computed from the system of ordinary differential equations formulated from the model using the next-generation matrix approach; we further investigated the stability of the model around the Terrorism free-equilibrium. It is shown that the model is locally asymptotically stable since R0 is less than unity. Simulations conducted with the adaptive tau package in R revealed that while military intervention remains significant, it must be augmented with strategies targeting the root causes of radicalization. The findings emphasize the importance of dialogue and rehabilitation efforts, underscoring the critical role of non-kinetic measures in achieving sustainable stability. The study concludes by recommending an integrated strategy combining military actions with dialogue-based initiatives. Keywords: Probability, Intervention, Dialogue. Radicalization, Modeling, Terrorism, Rehabilitation, Simulation